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Variance Simulator

Know your risk before you play.

PokerFolio Variance Simulator screen

Enter your real win rate — pulled straight from your own session history, by stakes — and PokerFolio simulates thousands of possible outcomes from there. See your risk of ruin, your chance of finishing up over a given stretch, and a realistic spread of ending bankrolls, not just the average.

A losing week or month doesn't necessarily mean you're playing worse. Variance shows you the range of results a winning player can expect to run through even when nothing about their game has changed — so a downswing reads as normal variance instead of a reason to panic.

Grounded in your own numbers. This isn't a generic calculator with made-up assumptions — it runs off your actual logged win rate at your actual stakes.
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